Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050): Significant growth in new energy thermal management, significant improvement in operating net cash

Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050): Significant growth in new energy thermal management, significant improvement in operating net cash

Events: 1) The company achieved revenue of 108 in 2018.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 13 in ten years.

10%; realize net profit of return to mother 12.

9 ‰, an increase of 4 in ten years.

56%; 2) Revenue of 25 in the quarter of 18Q4.

7 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

49%; net profit attributable to mothers2.

700 million, an annual increase of 4.

68%; 3) The annual dividend plan: 2 for every 10 shares.

50 yuan, the capital reserve will be increased by 3 shares for every 10 shares.

The initial dividend of the merger is 1 yuan for every 10 shares, and the actual total dividend rate reaches 76.

1%, corresponding to an index rate of about 2.

8%.

The growth rate of Q4 revenue has improved, and the new energy auto zero business has grown 都市夜网 steadily: The growth rate of internal sales of 18Q4 end valves, four-way valves, and electronic expansion valves has declined compared with the previous three quarters, mainly due to the sales growth rate of the downstream air regulator industryForecast impact.

In terms of business, the company’s refrigeration business revenue for 18 years increased by 21%, and its performance significantly exceeded the growth rate of the valve industry.

Revenue of Auto Zero Subsidiaries in 201814.

30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 38.

5%.

We estimate that new energy autos will have a zero income of about 500 million and a profit of about 80 million in 2018.

The product structure continued to improve, and the short-term competition in the refrigeration business intensified: gross profit margin in 2018, and net profit margin was 2北京夜生活网8.

59%, 12.

10% each year -2.

64, -0.

96 points.

The gross profit margins of refrigeration business and auto zero business are -3 for each.

32, -1.

45pct; the gross profit margin in the second half of the year is -7.

0, -0.

9 points.

Based on the actual state of Dunan’s environmental management status of the traditional refrigeration valve business, a long-term price war may replace it.

In the field of thermal management components for new energy vehicles, the company currently leads the industry in scale and lacks strong rankings in the short term. It is expected to fully benefit from the joint efforts of large-scale landing in 19-20.

R & D expenses continue to be paid, and exchange gains contribute significantly: the company’s 2018 sales, management + R & D, and financial expense rates were -0 each year.

20, +0.

31, -1.

78pct.

The company spent R & D expenses in 20184.

37 trillion US dollars, a significant increase of 33 per year.

6%.The company realized exchange gains of 87.79 million yuan in 2018 (at the same time it was terminated1.

30,000 yuan), of which we expect exchange earnings in the Q4 quarter to be about 30-40 million yuan (while spending about 30-40 million yuan), the exchange rate has made a significant contribution to the company’s performance.

The operating net cash flow has improved significantly, and cash in hand has grown steadily: cash received from selling goods and providing services in 2018 was 114.

33 ppm, an increase of 24 in ten years.

73%; operating net cash flow 12.

880,000 yuan, a sharp increase of 98.

5%.

Among them, the cash received in the fourth quarter of Q4 for sales of goods and labor services34.

4.2 billion, an annual increase of 48.

5%; net cash flow from operations 7.
.

US $ 2.7 billion, a substantial increase of 844%, and the company’s cash repayment ability has improved significantly.

Investment suggestion: Looking forward to the first two quarters of 1919, the current air-conditioning leader’s production plan has returned to growth. We expect the cascading volume of Tesla Model 3, the possible contracting progress of Model Y in the future, and the completion and commissioning of Tesla’s Shanghai plant.It is expected that the expansion of performance will be improved in the second half of the year, and it is recommended to pay attention in advance.

Based on the annual report, we expect the company’s net profit growth rate from 19-21 to 12%.

4%, 23.

1%, 21.

2%, net profit is 14.

5, 17.

9, 21.

7 trillion, currently sustainable corresponds to 19-21 years 25.

3x, 20.

5x, 16.

9xPE, maintain buy level.

Risk reminders: Air conditioning demand is less than expected; macroeconomic outlook risks; new business development is less than expected.